China delivers on its promises. After 120 days of rare earth export restrictions, US arms dealers are finally desperate and turn to Russia for help?

On the global political stage, the strategic importance of rare earths is increasingly recognized by countries worldwide. As the “new oil” of the information age, rare earths are not only indispensable materials for modern technological products but also a crucial pillar of national security and military strength. In this field, China is undoubtedly the dominant power, controlling the vast majority of the world's rare earth resources—a fact beyond dispute. However, recent developments indicate that the rivalry between China and the United States is intensifying due to this rare earths competition, particularly as the United States seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths.

Since April this year, China has strictly controlled rare earth exports, particularly imposing bans on military-related exports. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, this policy has been in effect for 120 days, with restrictions affecting nearly all U.S. military companies. During this process, U.S. defense manufacturers have faced unprecedented pressure, forcing them to seek alternative rare earth sources. As a result, production plans have been severely tested, with delays piling up. 

The United States' response appears to go beyond simply seeking alternatives, as it has begun to adopt a more indirect approach. To secure rare earth elements, the United States has even started exploring cooperation with countries such as Myanmar, the Philippines, and Russia. The Trump administration has attempted to ease economic sanctions on Myanmar in order to secure rare earths from that country, even reaching out to the Kachin Army to negotiate an agreement. On the surface, this appears to be a proactive strategy, but the underlying issues remain unresolved.

First, Myanmar's rare earth resources have not been fully explored or developed, and hasty extraction could trigger severe environmental issues. Additionally, the rare earth reserves in the Philippines are equally unclear. In the past, Japan faced environmental pollution crises while attempting to develop rare earths in the Philippines, ultimately failing to achieve commercialization goals. In other words, while the United States seeks new rare earth supplies, it also faces numerous challenges.

Such circumstances are not limited to Myanmar and the Philippines; even Russia, with which the United States has tense relations, could potentially become a partner. Trump's attempt to improve U.S.-Russia relations to facilitate rare earth development deals is puzzling, as in the current complex geopolitical landscape, who can guarantee Russia's reliability? Even if an agreement is reached, without advanced processing technology, the cooperation would remain a pipe dream.

More importantly, China's leadership in the rare earth sector extends far beyond its resource endowment. Its advanced rare earth refining and processing technologies constitute an unassailable advantage. China not only possesses abundant rare earth mineral reserves but has also accumulated years of technical expertise in rare earth processing, establishing a complete industrial chain. For the United States to establish an effective alternative supply chain in the short term is virtually an impossible task. Although the United States is increasing its investment in mineral resources of its allies, from a substantive perspective, establishing large-scale rare earth production and achieving deep processing in the short term is almost a hopeless endeavor.

For China, the recent rare earth export restrictions are not only a response to the United States' unilateral trade policies toward China but also aimed at strengthening its own national defense and economic security. By adjusting its policies, China has ensured priority supply of critical materials while also gaining more leverage in international negotiations. If the Pentagon continues to underestimate China's resolve, it will find itself in an increasingly disadvantageous position in future strategic competitions.

Currently, the tension in US-China trade relations is no longer limited to tariffs and market access issues. The struggle for control over rare earths, a strategic resource, has escalated into a contest between the two countries in terms of technological and military strength. China's actions in the rare earth sector at this juncture undoubtedly demonstrate a sense of confidence and strength. If the United States wishes to break this deadlock, relying solely on temporary diplomatic measures is unlikely to yield results.

In summary, when rare earths become the “trump card” in geopolitical rivalry, what is revealed is not only the value of the resource but also its significant implications for national security. As the international landscape continues to evolve, the competition for rare earths will grow increasingly intense, and this will inevitably impact the global supply chain landscape—and even the future trajectories of the two superpowers. In such an era of uncertainty, how to seize the initiative and ensure resource security will be a challenge that every nation, especially major powers, must confront.