Rare earth prices are expected to rise in 2025: dysprosium oxide prices remain at 1.6 million, terbium oxide rises to 5.8 million, and terbium oxide is expected to exceed 7 million

Recently, price trends in the rare earth market have attracted attention. Overall, the price trend of rare earths has been relatively stable, although some products, such as dysprosium alloy, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, have experienced some fluctuations. In recent days, the price of ferro-dysprosium alloy has risen slightly, dysprosium oxide has remained at approximately 1.6 million yuan, and terbium oxide has risen from 5.65 million yuan to 5.8 million yuan. Although the market remains uncertain as to whether prices can continue to rise, the current national reserve situation will likely have an impact on future prices, with a lack of a strong push in the short term.

Looking ahead, production cuts by many SMEs before and after the Chinese New Year affected overall supply, a situation that will gradually improve after the Chinese New Year. The market meeting in Guangzhou in early March is expected to be an important turning point. Reviewing the price volatility from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, the possible market turning point comes in March next year. By then, more policy details may be announced, and rare earth prices are expected to be supported in the first half of the year. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices are expected to rise to 450,000 yuan, dysprosium oxide prices will reach 1.7 million to 1.8 million, while terbium oxide prices are expected to exceed 7 million yuan.

On the supply and demand side, the supply of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and the future increment will be the key focus. in 2024, praseodymium-neodymium oxide production is expected to reach 105,000 tons, and in 2025, it may be raised to 110,000-115,000 tons. Although there is a risk of decline in the supply of Burmese ore, overall, the surplus situation of praseodymium oxide in 2025 is relatively limited, and there may only be a surplus of a few thousand tons.

The contradiction between supply and demand of heavy rare earths still exists, with the annual output of dysprosium oxide ranging from about 3,500 to 5,600 tons, facing a surplus of 1,500 tons, and the social stockpile around 2,000 tons. In addition, the terbium oxide market is volatile and its downstream applications are gradually decreasing, resulting in significant oversupply. With the growth of new energy vehicles, the demand for heavy rare earths will be expected to rise, but overall there is still a surplus.

In terms of policy, waste recycling enterprises have been affected by the new regulations, and have been prohibited from making raw minerals since October, which has caused some enterprises to withdraw from the market, and the flow of raw mineral resources to the two major groups, which has helped these enterprises to increase their market share and voice. In addition, raw ore separators are facing uncertainty about their future development, and the concentration of the industry is increasing.

In terms of imported minerals, the possibility of Myanmar minerals has been encouraged by the national policy, but its negotiation is still in a deadlock due to the cost and sales channels; while the import volume of Laos minerals is increasing year by year, and is expected to reach 9,000 tons to 10,000 tons in 2024, and is more likely to rise to 15,000 tons to 20,000 tons in 2025.

Northern Rare Earths, for its part, has been asked to assume significant pricing responsibilities domestically and globally, and thus strategic adjustments in listing prices will have a potential impact on the industry. Finally, although the balance between supply and demand in the rare earth industry is gradually improving, the issue of increasing industry concentration and oligopoly still needs to be resolved, and future trends need to continue to be watched.