“Shock” of rare earths: supply constraints have begun to show the effectiveness of 2025 is expected to open the rare earth magnetic material growth year

　2024 is the rare earth industry continues to adjust the third year. From the policy side, 2024 is a “big year” for the rare earth industry. As a strategic small metal, by geopolitics, supply and demand, this year the rare earth price trend of fluctuations in frequency. In this context, the performance of rare earth enterprises further decline. At the same time, the growth rate of rare earth indicators in 2024 is slowing down, but the pace of industrial integration is still accelerating.

　In January this year, Guangsheng non-ferrous (30.000, 0.00, 0.00%) real controller will be changed from the Guangdong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to China Rare Earth (28.530, 0.00, 0.00%) Group, the domestic rare earth industry, “a south and a north” pattern to accelerate the evolution of the domestic rare earth industry; in October, the north of rare earth (21.470, 0.00, 0.00%), the domestic rare earth industry, “a south and a north” pattern to accelerate the evolution of the domestic rare earth industry. 0.00, 0.00%) green smelting upgrading project a project was put into operation, marking the world's largest rare earth raw material production base formally put into operation ...... These stirring stories, destined to leave a heavy in the history of China's rare earth industry development.

Talking about the rare earth market, China Rare Earths in the third quarter of 2024 results briefing pointed out that in 2024, by the market environment, industry supply and demand cycle and other factors, the price of major rare earth products in the first quarter of the rapid downward trend, the second and third quarters in the relatively low fluctuating changes. Into the fourth quarter, some rare earth product prices have rebounded.

　　“Raw material end, 2024 domestic rare earth mining indicator growth rate back to a reasonable range, the total annual mining indicator year-on-year increase of only 5.88%; Imported mines U.S. metal ores continue to shrink, Myanmar mine pattern is not clear, imports are hindered by a larger, the overall trend of imports compared to the previous year's increase has also narrowed. Demand side, the overall demand this year compared to previous years is still growing, reflected in the gross output rose year-on-year, but the high-end applications as market saturation increases, the overall growth rate has slowed down, the market is still in the stage of oversupply. Price end, this year's annual price trend performance for the low narrow-amplitude oscillation, the overall price trend compared to last year's high and low spreads have tightened, the trend is more stable, it is expected that the market mainstream price amplitude will continue to narrow.” Shanghai Steel (20.490, -0.20, -0.97%) rare precious metals division of rare earth analyst Li smart to Caixin News Agency reporter said.

　　In Li Smart's view, the price trend of rare earths in 2025 may be better than this year's market. From the perspective of downstream demand, there are still some increments in orders in the mid- and high-end fields, but the increase is expected to slow down slightly.

　　Fubo information rare earth analyst Wei Kelly told reporters that compared to 2023, this year's rare earth market is relatively stable, praseodymium-neodymium oxide as a whole around 400,000-450,000 yuan / ton price up and down. Looking ahead, Wei Kelly expects the rare earth market in 2025 will continue this year's weak and stable shock market, up and down space are not big.

　　“According to our research in Ganzhou, rare earth enterprises in Longnan area are expected to resume normal production in the second quarter of next year. On the demand side, demand in the new energy sector is expected to continue to grow next year, and robotics (16.890, -0.11, -0.65%) is another emerging direction.” Wei Kelly said, from the rare earth indicators released in previous years, growth has become the practice, coupled with the downstream demand performance is still good, is expected to continue to grow next year, rare earth indicators are more likely.

　　According to “SMM rare earth” public number released on December 26, with the Myanmar fruit has been shipped to the country, is expected to Myanmar ore imports will also be at the end of the month or the beginning of next month into the country, which will bring an increase in supply.